On The Causes Of DC's Drop In Crime, And Traffic Fatalities
You know what really grinds my gears? Cause and effect. Or, more specifically, when someone says "because thing X was done, and thing Y happened afterwards, thing X must have caused thing Y."
The problem is, this doesn't take into account things A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, and sometimes thing I, which also had something to do with thing Y.
It's especially irritating when the people who do this are suppposedly smart and experienced. And most importantly, it's their f?!king job to understand this.
I wish that every single person could escape from the educational institutions of this country with a healthy dose of skepticism for this kind of shysterism. It's not like it's uncommon. Whenever something good happens in your city, the politicians are quick to claim credit for it. Never mind the fact that your tiny local intiative is insignificant compared to things like, oh, say, the economy. But that's just common-or-garden politicking. It's annoying but it will never go away.
But when you see actual reporters and educators parroting the same crap, it's downright distrubing. It's their job to point out blatant manipulation (or in many cases, complete ignorance) of statistics, to think about what they are about to eat before swallowing it whole. It makes me wonder if anyone out there still has a brain, or at the very least is still interested in facts rather than fantasy.
A Tale Of Two Tall Tales
This came up not once but twice today in two separate pieces I read. The first has to do with crime in DC. It's gone down this year. That is a fact. Naturally, our earnest police chief Cathy Lanier has loudly trumpeted this fact, because obviously, it's proof that her questionable policies have been effective. Never mind the fact that crime's down nationwide. Did your policies somehow work in Chicago too, through osmosis, I presume?
Actually, nobody really knows why crime's gone down. The New York Times wrote in August about this curious national phenomenon.
So I was especially surprised to read in The Washington City Paper blog today this love-fest for MPD Chief Cathy Lanier entitled, without a hint of irony, "Chief Lanier Deserves Credit For Drop In Homicides."
While we have come to expect the Washington Post to mindlessly repeat the party line from Fenty's office, The City Paper, while not always on point, as a general rule has avoided simply swallowing the propoganda hook, line and sinker. But apparently, the new management there has instructed their reporters that the public would rather hear warm, fuzzy things than be told the truth. Either that or the lead in our water supply has lowered the IQs of their reporters by 20 or 30 points over the last couple years. Because this article might as well have been written by the DC Government's public relations office.
The fact is, there has been a great deal of research done by thinking people over the last couple decades about reasons for crime trends. They are complex, and generally, big changes in crime have been attributed to social factors much more often than local policing efforts. But all this means nothing, I suppose, when Chief Lanier is on the podium trumpeting her success.
I am not going to say what she's done has not had an effect. While I am highly skeptical (for reasons in my previous post about MPD, linked above), I just don't know. Because I don't know how crime in DC has compared to crime in other cities.
Why don't I know that? Because:
- Nobody has bothered to actually compare those two things
- DC doesn't think it's worth using the same standards as the FBI for categorizing crimes, sometimes resulting in "apples and oranges" data compared to other cities
- I have very little confidence that crimes other than homicides are reported accurately, since there are many, many documented cases of police discouraging crime victims to file a report
The latter two things are not in anyone's direct control, really. But at the very least if you are going to not just write about the crime rate in DC, but
give credit to Lanier for the reduction, shouldn't you bother even mentioning that crime's down everywhere?
(Drinking And) Driving The Point HomeThe other incident comes from another
City Paper blog item about the Amethyst Initiative. This is a coalition of college and university presidents who want the legal drinking age lowered to 18.
Many people, reasonably, think that this is a bad idea on first blush. But when you look at the issue thoughtfully, it's far from simple. Binge drinking makes the news a lot these days. We all know that nearly everyone drinks before they turn 21, and personally, I think it's absurd that we should recoginize citizens as adults in every other way (such as, being tried for crimes as an adult, and killing people in foreign lands), but not permit them to drink legally. But the members of this coalition also believe that the law does more harm than good and does nothing to improve public safety -- in fact, it may harm it.
In the DC area, there's mixed support for it from our institutions of higher learning. But George Washington University President Steven Knapp, who opposes it, has this to say:
“A lower drinking age would mean more traffic fatalities and, frankly, a rise in the overall consumption of alcohol.”
This is, at best, a completely unsubstantiated statement.
One thing is true: traffic fatalities have gone down nearly every year over roughly the same period of time that the drinking age has been 21 in most states.
What is an absolute failure of logic is to attribute that effect to the drinking age. The National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) spouts this as conclusive evidence that the drinking age saves lives, but unfortunately, whoever put together this "study" at NHTSA must have been drunk during their introductory statistics class.
They don't look at anything other than the big number: traffic deaths. When other people have looked at the data state-by-state, it has been found that in many cases, there was actually little or no change following the reduction in drinking age, and further, even when there was am improvement, it vanished after a couple years.
Beyond that, there's the big white elephant in the room that NHTSA avoids mentioning in their so-called study: The drinking age is not, actually, the only thing that has to do with traffic deaths.
- There have been dramatic improvements in autombile safety.
- The national speed limit went from 70 to 55 during the same period of time.
- There have been massive national education campaigns during the same period of time. The term "designated driver" didn't exist 30 years ago. Nor did MADD.
- Living in urban areas and public transit have experienced dramatic increases in popularity, giving more people alternatives to driving.
I could probably think of a half-dozen other possible factors, and I'm far from an expert.
Shouldn't someone for whom this issue is pretty important -- the president of a college -- do as much? Apparently not - since he mutely believes what he's been shoveled by the NHTSA. God help me for linking to Forbes, but in
this article they say much the same thing, and refer to a study by (gasp) a Harvard University economics professor who also came to the same conclusion:
the drinking age don't do crap.The bottom line is, I expect politicians to make up all kinds of stuff to make themselves look good or defend some position. I don't like it, but I don't like beets either and there's nothing I can do about either one. But reporters and academics can and should do better.