Comments on Farm Fresh Meat: Metro is safe: You have better odds of winning Pow...

@dmf: I don't you understood my post. I didn't say...

2009-06-29T14:39:23.275+01:00

@dmf: I don't you understood my post. I didn't say there was no chance of an accident in 1977.
All the math I did about metro was chances over a period of time, based on a number of trips every day. I was very clear about whether I was talking about a single trip or an average for a year. The like-comparison for cars is 1 in 7000 vs. 1 in 1.5 million.

Also, Metro's accident history doesn't even support the idea that accidents "increase dramatically with time."

In the first 6 years of operation, there was one accident that killed 3. There was not another accident that killed passengers for 26 years. The other accidents, none of which involved passenger deaths, were due to operator error.

I am not saying that you are incorrect, necessarily, but there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Metro's safety has "decreased dramatically with time." Before the accident last week, one could have said "Metro's safety has INCREASED dramatically. Whereas there was a fatal accident a mere 6 years after it opened, there has not been one in 26 years."

The numbers fly. It's pretty simple math, and besides, 1 in 7000 is a huge difference than 1 in 1.5 million. You should also bear in mind that the automobile numbers are average - if you actually drive to work, meaning you spend an above-average amount of time in your car, you chances of dying in a car accident are even higher.

yeah, not really. you're comparing apple and orang...

2009-06-28T16:29:41.765+01:00

yeah, not really. you're comparing apple and oranges. the chance of an accident on metro increases dramatically with age. especially since they don't upkeep well. of course there were no accidents in 1977. it was new. nothing had time to break down yet.

the chances of getting in to a car accident don't increase with time. the chances of winning at powerball don't increase with time.

not that i'm saying metro is "unsafe". but your numbers don't fly. i'm still riding whenever i need to without a second thought.

Excellent Post -- a lot of people drove in today t...

2009-06-23T16:21:15.563+01:00

Excellent Post -- a lot of people drove in today to avoid the metro, that is just silly.

Totally agree. The Metro is, by far, the safest w...

2009-06-23T15:17:40.635+01:00

Totally agree. The Metro is, by far, the safest way to travel in the DC area. I really don't get a lot of the namby-pamying about the accident.